Probability and random variables

Activities: In-class, large-group

• Jelly Beans. Involves having students select jelly beans from a cup in order to investigate the effects of sampling without replacement.  Submitted by William Harkness.

Activities: In-class, small-group

• Diagnostic Testing.  An introduction to diagnostic testing by analyzing data to determine the accuracy of a pregnancy test.  Submitted by Laura J. Simon.
• Relative Risk and Related Measures.  An activity which involves reading two different news articles which report relative risk and related measures. Submitted by Laura J. Simon.

Cartoons

• A Dilbert cartoon (by Scott Adams) about coincidence.
• Another Dilbert cartoon (by Scott Adams) about coincidence.
• A Mother Goose and Grimm cartoon (by Mike Peters) about tossing a coin.

Class lecture notes

• Probability.  Definitions, characteristics, and examples of probabilities.  Submitted by Herb McGrath.
• Probability rules.  A summary of probability rules and the ways of assigning probabilities to events.  Submitted by Laura J. Simon.
• Probability Concepts.  An introduction to the basic concepts of probability. Submitted by Bob Heckard.
• The birthday problem.  A sample problem which illustrates the probability of at least two people in the class having the same birthday. Submitted by Laura J. Simon.
• Conditional probabilities.  How to compare groups using conditional probabilities, relative risk, and related measures.  Submitted by Laura J. Simon.
• Two way tables.  An introduction to two way tables and various probabilities. Submitted by Laura J. Simon.
• Two way table example: medical diagnostic testing.  An example of accuracy in medical diagnostic testing and the interpretation of the results. Submitted by Laura J. Simon.

Dynamic visual displays

• Streaks and coincidences.  This Toolbook module dynamically examines the distribution of the length of the longest run of consecutive identical results in 25 flips of a coin.    Submitted by Bob Heckard. Requires Neuron plug-in.
• The birthday problem.  This Toolbook module simulates the matching birthday problem.    Submitted by Bob Heckard. Requires Neuron plug-in.
• A roulette simulation.  This Toolbook module looks at repeated plays of bets on a specific number as well as bets on a color. Requires Neuron plug-in.  Submitted by Bob Heckard.
• A simpler sample for coin flips and die tosses.  This Toolbook module is a primitive sampler for looking at results from either 10 or 100 flips of a coin, as well as ten tosses of a fair die.   Submitted by Bob Heckard. Requires Neuron plug-in.

Videos

• Against All Odds: Inside Statistics Video 15: What is Probability?  Distinguish between deterministic and random phenomena, and understand sample space, events, outcomes and probability models.  Examples include the work of statistician Persi Diaconis on probability and randomness and a computer that models traffic scenarios.  (28:49 mins.)  Video available in Main Office and from Penn State AVS.
• Against All Odds: Inside Statistics Video 16:  Random Variables.  How does a statistician calculate the probability of a space shuttle accident?  How do geologists use statistics to predict earthquakes?  Learn about the idea of independence; the multiplication rule for independent events; and discrete and continuous random variables.  (28:47 mins.)  Video available in Main Office and from Penn State AVS.