Statistical Education Resource Kit

Is he guilty?

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Is he guilty? 

Mr. Orangejuice was tried for the murder of his ex-wife. He was acquitted in the criminal trial by the jury but convicted in a subsequent civil lawsuit based on the same evidence. Does it make any statistical sense?  

Here we put Mr. O not guilty in Ho since we consider false rejection of Ho a more serious error than failing to reject Ho .  

For the criminal court, one usually sets the a value to be very small because a guilty verdict may lead to a very severe penalty. However, for the civil court, one may set the a value a bit larger as the penalty for a guilty verdict is less severe. Because of the discrepancy in the chosen a values, it is possible that Ho cannot be rejected at the criminal court but rejected at the civil court based on the same evidence. 

Author: Mosuk Chow 

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This web page was submitted by Mosuk Chow: mchow@stat.psu.edu